Target number 19 for a high flying Liberal Democrats is my constituency, Totnes (hate the name, it should be called South Devon but anyway). It needs a 3% swing for the Lib Dems to overturn the notional Tory majority of 2722 and win a Tory stonghold which has only been Liberal for one year in its 125 year history.
A couple of interesting dynamics to the Totnes constituency which makes the result so hard to predict is the strong Green Party and UKIP presence in the area, for example plenty of UKIP signs have popped up on local farms and business which usually have Tory signs up. At the last election UKIP polled just shy of 4,000 votes, I wouldn’t be surprised if that increased to 5,000 or even 6,000 at the expense of the Tories – those extra 2,000 votes could well be balanced by the Greens who are strong especially in Totnes town.
I wouldn’t like to say which way the seat will fall, but if I had too I would say UKIP will push Labour down to 4th in the vote as Labour minded people vote tactically & give the Lib Dems are small win by hundreds, even tens of votes – definitely a seat to watch.
Full list of candidates:
| Jeffrey Beer | UK Independence Party | |||
| Julian Brazil | Liberal Democrat | |||
| Simon Drew | Independent | |||
| Stephen Hopwood | Independent | |||
| Lydia Somerville | Green | |||
| Michael Turner | British National Party | |||
| Carol Whitty | Labour | |||
| Sarah Wollaston | Conservative |
Tags: Conservatives, General Election, Lib Dems, The Green Party, Tories, Totnes, UK Politics, UKIP
April 28, 2010 at 11:05 |
Hello Ben! Good to run into someone online with very close interests to mine.
Are you aware of the developing story around Sarah Woolaston? Please check this out:
http://www.peoplesrepublicofsouthdevon.co.uk/2010/04/26/totnes-tory-dr-sarah-wollaston-under-fire-over-conservative-euro-alliegances/
Can I ask why you are supporting Labour, who will not win in Totnes, rather than the Lib Dems?
May 17, 2010 at 18:52 |
how very wrong I was… least I said it would be hard to guess!